On Monday as the country witnesses voting for the fifth phase of the Lok Sabha elections, one thing stands out clearly. Even though the May 20 polls will see the electorate exercise franchise for the least number of MP— 49 to be precise, it is the one with most high-profile constituencies and candidates in this seven-phase calendar.
Poll watchers and political parties will be observing how strong will be the turnout among the 8.95 crore voters considering that the percentage in the past four phases hovered around 66%. In this Phase, besides polling in six states and two union territories, residents of Odisha will also vote for 35 assembly constituencies and move towards electing a new government in the state.
Of these 49 Lok Sabha seats, the governing coalition of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) enters with a huge advantage of holding 41 seats; the I.N.D.I.A platform on six; and, two with others. Of the six states barring Bihar, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra, the contest will be triangular in Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal. The principal contestants will be from the BJP-led ND Alliance, the Congress-led I.N.D.I. Alliance, the Bahujan Samaj Party and two regional parties in the two eastern states.
Bi-polar Contests
There are 21 seats spread across Bihar (5), Jharkhand (3) and Maharashtra (13) where the contest is essentially bi-polar. This amounts to some 43% of the seats where the Opposition bloc managed to keep the contest straight.
In Bihar, it is the Mahagathbandhan of Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress and others versus the BJP-Janata Dal (United)-Lok Janshakti Party (RVP) and others. Interestingly, the political future of three next generation leaders—Chirag Paswan, son of Ram Vilas Paswan and Misa Bharti and Rohini Acharya, daughters of Lalu Prasad Yadav who are in the fray — is tied up.
Neighbouring Jharkhand too is a direct contest between BJP and regional Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led alliance that includes the CPI (ML) Liberation. Of course, away from the Lok Sabha focus will be on the Gandey assembly by-election on which Kalpana Soren, wife of former state Chief Minister Hemant Soren, currently in custody, is testing political waters against BJP’s Dilip Kumar Verma among others.
Maharashtra remains a state where the electorate are to decide between two fiercely competing parties, the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party, which have suffered a split. Of the 13 seats, Mumbai city will also vote for six of its MPs and among them are Union Minister Piyush Goyal (North) and senior criminal lawyer Ujjwal Nikam (North Central), making it a contest to watch.
With Udhhav Thackrey and Sharad Pawar faction in alliance with the Congress, and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar on the side of the BJP, there are emotional pull and dilemma of traditional supporters to opt for one or the other factions. This adds a different flavour amid serious differences with the factions that are with the BJP over seat allocation and attendant issues.
Triangular/multi-cornered contest
Uttar Pradesh, the cauldron of national politics, enters an interesting phase where the BJP has a strong presence. Besides Union Ministers Rajnath Sihgh (Lucknow) Smriti Irani (Amethi), Kaushal Kishore (Mohanlalganj) and Bhanu Pratap Verma (Jalaun), the party fielded five other sitting MPs replacing controversial Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh with his son Karan Bhushan.
In this phase, the party sought to assuage the Thakur/Rajput community upset over its members ignored in the initial rounds. The BJP deftly sought to address this by granting tickets in this phase to members of the community, including someone considered close to Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.
While the spotlight will be on Rahul Gandhi, contesting from Rae Bareli, a seat held by his family members including mother Sonia Gandhi, the coming together of Congress and Samajwadi Party has the potential to alter equations but the presence of the Bahujan Samaj Party, which decided to go it alone, can be a spoke.
In eastern states of Odisha and West Bengal, the main parties contesting to corner the seats include the BJP challenging the regional outfits of Biju Janata Dal and the Trinamool Congress, respectively. In these states the Congress is also in the fray, alone in Odisha and in alliance with the Left parties in West Bengal.
In Odisha, the BJP and the BJD, considered friendly with each other, if not allies, are now engaged in a duel. For the first time in many years, the BJP campaign has been sharp in attacking the BJD under Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik. The party is making a serious bid to put its own government in Bhubaneswar.
Similarly in West Bengal where the BJP won 18 of the 42 seats is aggressive and wants to better the existing record. The idea is also to recover the ground it lost during the last assembly elections.
J & K and Ladakh
In these two seats, the BJP is missing in Baramulla constituency of J&K where former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah seeks to re-establish his National Party in a seat reflecting aspirations of the people of the region known for its diverse demographics and distinct cultural identity. Pitted against him are Sajjad Lone of J&K Peoples’ Conference and Fayaz Ahmed Mir of Peoples Democratic Alliance. Ironically, both PDP and NC are otherwise on the I.N.D.I.A platform.
Ladakh, the lone seat, remains a direct BJP versus Congress amid strong push and pull as this is the first time the constituency will elect its member post the 2019 re-organisation.
—The author, K V Prasad, is an author and political analyst. The views expressed are personal.
Read his previous articles here
Poll watchers and political parties will be observing how strong will be the turnout among the 8.95 crore voters considering that the percentage in the past four phases hovered around 66%. In this Phase, besides polling in six states and two union territories, residents of Odisha will also vote for 35 assembly constituencies and move towards electing a new government in the state.
Of these 49 Lok Sabha seats, the governing coalition of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) enters with a huge advantage of holding 41 seats; the I.N.D.I.A platform on six; and, two with others. Of the six states barring Bihar, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra, the contest will be triangular in Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal. The principal contestants will be from the BJP-led ND Alliance, the Congress-led I.N.D.I. Alliance, the Bahujan Samaj Party and two regional parties in the two eastern states.
Bi-polar Contests
There are 21 seats spread across Bihar (5), Jharkhand (3) and Maharashtra (13) where the contest is essentially bi-polar. This amounts to some 43% of the seats where the Opposition bloc managed to keep the contest straight.
In Bihar, it is the Mahagathbandhan of Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress and others versus the BJP-Janata Dal (United)-Lok Janshakti Party (RVP) and others. Interestingly, the political future of three next generation leaders—Chirag Paswan, son of Ram Vilas Paswan and Misa Bharti and Rohini Acharya, daughters of Lalu Prasad Yadav who are in the fray — is tied up.
Neighbouring Jharkhand too is a direct contest between BJP and regional Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led alliance that includes the CPI (ML) Liberation. Of course, away from the Lok Sabha focus will be on the Gandey assembly by-election on which Kalpana Soren, wife of former state Chief Minister Hemant Soren, currently in custody, is testing political waters against BJP’s Dilip Kumar Verma among others.
Maharashtra remains a state where the electorate are to decide between two fiercely competing parties, the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party, which have suffered a split. Of the 13 seats, Mumbai city will also vote for six of its MPs and among them are Union Minister Piyush Goyal (North) and senior criminal lawyer Ujjwal Nikam (North Central), making it a contest to watch.
With Udhhav Thackrey and Sharad Pawar faction in alliance with the Congress, and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar on the side of the BJP, there are emotional pull and dilemma of traditional supporters to opt for one or the other factions. This adds a different flavour amid serious differences with the factions that are with the BJP over seat allocation and attendant issues.
Triangular/multi-cornered contest
Uttar Pradesh, the cauldron of national politics, enters an interesting phase where the BJP has a strong presence. Besides Union Ministers Rajnath Sihgh (Lucknow) Smriti Irani (Amethi), Kaushal Kishore (Mohanlalganj) and Bhanu Pratap Verma (Jalaun), the party fielded five other sitting MPs replacing controversial Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh with his son Karan Bhushan.
In this phase, the party sought to assuage the Thakur/Rajput community upset over its members ignored in the initial rounds. The BJP deftly sought to address this by granting tickets in this phase to members of the community, including someone considered close to Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.
While the spotlight will be on Rahul Gandhi, contesting from Rae Bareli, a seat held by his family members including mother Sonia Gandhi, the coming together of Congress and Samajwadi Party has the potential to alter equations but the presence of the Bahujan Samaj Party, which decided to go it alone, can be a spoke.
In eastern states of Odisha and West Bengal, the main parties contesting to corner the seats include the BJP challenging the regional outfits of Biju Janata Dal and the Trinamool Congress, respectively. In these states the Congress is also in the fray, alone in Odisha and in alliance with the Left parties in West Bengal.
In Odisha, the BJP and the BJD, considered friendly with each other, if not allies, are now engaged in a duel. For the first time in many years, the BJP campaign has been sharp in attacking the BJD under Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik. The party is making a serious bid to put its own government in Bhubaneswar.
Similarly in West Bengal where the BJP won 18 of the 42 seats is aggressive and wants to better the existing record. The idea is also to recover the ground it lost during the last assembly elections.
J & K and Ladakh
In these two seats, the BJP is missing in Baramulla constituency of J&K where former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah seeks to re-establish his National Party in a seat reflecting aspirations of the people of the region known for its diverse demographics and distinct cultural identity. Pitted against him are Sajjad Lone of J&K Peoples’ Conference and Fayaz Ahmed Mir of Peoples Democratic Alliance. Ironically, both PDP and NC are otherwise on the I.N.D.I.A platform.
Ladakh, the lone seat, remains a direct BJP versus Congress amid strong push and pull as this is the first time the constituency will elect its member post the 2019 re-organisation.
—The author, K V Prasad, is an author and political analyst. The views expressed are personal.
Read his previous articles here
First Published: May 20, 2024 7:30 AM IST
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